SEATTLE — Washington could get a taste of fall earlier than much of the country, while many states could be grappling with heat, drought conditions and wildfire concerns well into October, according to new seasonal predictions.
The dog days of summer are in full swing, and it’s hard to believe that meteorological autumn is less than a month away. But AccuWeather forecasters are already releasing their predictions for when Pacific Northwest residents can expect to break out their jackets and hoodies.
Meteorological autumn kicks off Sept. 1 and continues through Nov. 30. While autumn doesn’t officially start until the Sept. 22 equinox, forecasters use consistent dates each year to easily compare one season to another.
According to AccuWeather’s recently released 2022 fall forecast, Washington could be in for an earlier autumnal shift, setting it apart from many areas of the country that instead face a few extra weeks of unseasonably warm temperatures.
“The Pacific Northwest will be the first to turn the corner and head into the wet season with storms starting to deliver rain and high-elevation mountain snow as early as October,” AccuWeather wrote. “The arrival of these storms will signal the end of the fire season for most of Washington, Oregon and Idaho.”
Speaking of snow, AccuWeather said ski season may take a little longer to arrive in the Pacific Northwest, as early storm systems in October and November land on the milder side. However, forecasters predict another strong season for resorts through the winter.
To determine its fall forecast, AccuWeather forecasters used data from computer models while also analyzing weather patterns around the globe and past years.
After combining these factors, the AccuWeather team condensed its seasonal outlook into one word for most: warm.
“With pretty good confidence this year, I think it’s a mild fall setting up overall for the U.S.,” AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
Here’s what other parts of the country could expect:
- In September, millions of residents in the Northeast and Midwest won’t feel much of a change when it comes to temperature. Expect the first frost of the season to arrive one or two weeks earlier than normal across the Upper Midwest and upstate New York.
- For the third consecutive year, La Niña will supercharge the Atlantic hurricane season, which will lead to a higher threat of tropical systems making landfall this autumn.
- Drought conditions are expected to ease across the Northeast, Midwest and Southeast. However, abnormally dry conditions will remain throughout most of the central United States in places like Texas, eastern New Mexico and western Kansas.
- Widespread and long-term drought is expected to fuel another active wildfire season in the West. The worst of the fires are expected to develop in areas different than 2021.
Source: Bellevue Patch